Outrun the Bear

The bear

Tariffs, pandemics, labor shortages, storms, fuel. These used to be outliers. Now they arrive one after another, and the companies that come out ahead aren’t the best planners. They are the ones that react fastest and act on what they already know.

Most networks are still standing still

Plenty of supply chains still run on assumptions built for a slower, steadier world. The gap between seeing a problem and doing something about it is where the money goes. It looks like this:

• Sourcing changes, and nobody re-optimizes the delivery routes
• Analytics feed dashboards, not decisions
• Planning runs quarterly while costs move weekly
• The response to a disruption starts after the damage is done

What looks like a forecasting problem is usually a behavior problem. Insight that nobody acts on is noise.

Reflex 1: Know your cost

Many companies make freight decisions without knowing what it costs to serve each customer. They treat shipping as a fixed expense instead of something they decide. If it costs $125 in fuel to earn $50 at work, you aren’t working. You’re bleeding.

In practice: a client was running several deliveries a week to the same accounts without seeing what that did to margin. Once we priced cost to serve by location and frequency, they consolidated routes, delivered less often, and cut cost per case without losing service.

Reflex 2: Use insight that triggers action

What matters is how fast you respond, what a missed opportunity costs, and how long the gap is between spotting a problem and fixing it.

In practice: a medical supply company delivered often to low-volume customers with no service tiers. We analyzed its shipment history and sorted customers into A through E tiers by volume and need. Deliveries fell 29%, pallet utilization rose 14%, and miles dropped 11%. Read the study.

Reflex 3: Sequence by cost to serve

Don’t just re-price. Rethink how you deliver, and revisit it, because very few businesses hold still. Match what each customer costs with when you deliver, how much, and how often.

In practice: a company’s direct-store deliveries were frequent and inefficient. We resequenced routes by volume and geography, introduced order minimums and tightened the stops. Fewer miles, lower cost, better use of the trucks, same service.

Reflex 4: Build adaptive muscle

Make speed a habit. Build operations that can flex when conditions change, with planned points in the workflow to stop and reassess.

In practice: a national food manufacturer’s suppliers kept charging the same delivered prices while freight markets moved. We helped it move to a managed inbound freight program. It saved more than $1.25 million. Read the study.

Why it works

Outrun the Bear comes from NT’s own playbook and from what shippers actually run into. Perfection isn’t the bar. Being ready, and a little faster than everyone else, is.

Download the PDF PDF, 4 pages